***Update on the Long Island forecast with the cold start this morning and the warm Wednesday ahead and eventual rain, and also the latest on future Hurricane Rafael with more uncertainty than normal in track/strength, but hurricane models are stronger than NHC 80 mph peak. I would not be surprised with a Cat 2 for western Cuba.***
- Very cold start this morning for Long Island and the northeast, but with the warm front tonight, there will be a big warming trend with temperatures peaking in the mid 70's on Wednesday for Long Island. Little to no rain for Long Island for the next 6 days, but a chance of showers Sunday evening into Monday morning.
- Since the tropical system still has not formed yet, there is a little more uncertainty in usual in both the track and strength. The high-resolution hurricane models mostly have a strong hurricane for western Cuba with the potential for gusts over 100 mph, but it will be a small hurricane. The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center is projecting an 80 mph peak. Even if it's stronger when it gets into the Gulf, it will WEAKEN significantly before it gets closer to the central Gulf coast.
- 1st image: My Long Island forecast
- 2nd image: Advertisement
- 3rd image: NHC map for future Rafael
- 4th image: HAFS-B model for 7 PM Thursday
- 5th and 6th images: Tracks and intensity projections from various models
- 7th and 8th images: GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles
- 9th image: Model Blend precipitation map for the next 6 days
- 10th image: Long Island temps for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
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