***Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba where Rafael will peak with gusts over 100 mph. Weakening in the Gulf with large track uncertainty. Warmth peaks on Long Island tomorrow and finally some rain for Sunday into early on Veterans Day.***
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- From the NHC regarding the track: "The track guidance is in fairly good agreement for the first 48 hours of the period. Thereafter, the model tracks diverge with an increasing spread
between the GFS and ECMWF (Euro) solutions with time. The ECMWF simulation shows a much stronger mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S., resulting in Rafael moving into the western Gulf in the latter part of the period. In contrast, the GFS model indicates that ridge will break down in 3-4 days, allowing the system to turn northward. The official forecast lies roughly between these two possibilities and is fairly close to the model consensus. This is just slightly west of the previous NHC track. Given the model spread, there is a less confidence than usual in the 4-5 day forecast."
- Regarding the rain for Long Island, there is uncertainty as to if it starts early on Sunday or later as the Euro has it start later and has much less rain than the GFS. More rain is expected later next week or next weekend with a potential storm with wind.
- 1st image: NHC map for Rafael
- 2nd and 3rd images: Tracks from various models and the Euro ensembles
- 4th image: My Long Island forecast
- 5th image: 10-day precipitation map from the Model Blend
- 6th image: Long Island temps for the next 15 days
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