- The National Hurricane Center is at 90% and a Tropical Depression is likely to form today or tomorrow and become Sara shortly thereafter. It looks like it will head initially westward and then back eastward and become a very strong hurricane, possibly a major hurricane. Then it will start heading northwest. Have to see if it goes over the Yucatan; if it's strong enough, it may not. This has implications for landfall strength in Florida around next Wednesday. Many more updates to come.
- Chilly weather in the northeast with Red Flag Warnings for NYC, Long Island, and southern New England. They will likely have to be extended for some areas for the rest of the week with generally low humidity and breezy conditions most days. The NAM is showing humidity levels I've never seen here before, and I may post it a little later this morning.
- There will be the weaker system approaching from the southwest tomorrow and then the retrograding offshore storm Friday, and then a weak cold front on Monday, but none of them will likely bring any measurable rain really for Long Island, so we may have to wait until the middle to end of next week!
- 1st image: Ensembles!
- 2nd image: My Long Island forecast
- 3rd image: Intensity projections from various models
- 4th image: Model Blend precipitation map for the next 7 days
- 5th image: Long Island temps
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