- A chilly start, but it will warm up quickly by mid to late morning with an absolutely perfect day ahead with sunshine, low humidity, and a light afternoon breeze.
- Another great day tomorrow, and then on Friday an offshore storm passes east of Cape Cod and heads towards Nova Scotia with some rain and wind.
- A cold front swings through the northeast Saturday into early Sunday, and the timing of the rain looks to be mainly Saturday night for Long Island. The 3rd image is the map from the Euro for the period from 8 PM Saturday to 2 AM Sunday. Higher rainfall totals to the west, as you can see in the rainfall map below. Becoming sunny and less humid Sunday afternoon for Long Island.
- More nice days with low humidity next week with some warmer days by the middle of the week (see last image for Long Island temps for the next 15 days).
- Nothing really going on in the tropics for the next 10 days as we still have that slight chance for a tropical storm or hurricane to form in the Gulf next week, but the chances seem to have decreased a little since yesterday.
- Here are the comments from the tropical meteorology experts at Colorado State University on the tropics and the reasons it has been quiet lately and what to expect going forward: "The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an extremely fast start, with Hurricane Beryl becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record. Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto followed in early and mid-August, respectively, leading to a well above-average season through the middle part of August. However, since Ernesto
dissipated on 20 August, the Atlantic has had no named storm activity. As we near the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we discuss the 2024 season in detail, including several possible reasons for the recent dearth in Atlantic hurricane activity. These reasons include: 1) a northward-shifted monsoon trough resulting in African easterly waves emerging at too far north of a latitude, 2) extremely warm upper-level temperatures resulting in stabilization of the atmosphere, 3) too much easterly shear in the eastern Atlantic, and more recently 4) unfavorable sub-seasonal variability associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation. We believe that it is likely a combination of these factors (and perhaps others) that have led to this recent quiet period. We still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September. We note that we are not issuing a new seasonal forecast with this discussion.
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