- Quick note on the Euro upgrade: It not only has improved temperature and wind outputs, but a big change is that the 00Z and 12Z runs will now go out 15 days instead of 10 days, and the 06Z and 18Z runs will go out 6 days instead of 90 hours!
- Sara: The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center is now up to a 70% chance of tropical development within the next 7 days, and that will keep going higher as it looks likely that we get a Tropical Depression around Thursday or Friday and a pretty good chance for it to become Hurricane Sara. You can see the maps from the ensembles below. Looks like it won't make that early escape off to the ENE and will instead hang around and meander a while in the western Caribbean Sea and then eventually head northward and then northeastward, so there is a chance that it makes it up towards southern Florida. Stay tuned!
- Red Flag Warnings for today for Long Island and the upper Mid-Atlantic and southern New England with very windy conditions today (up to 35 mph generally) with fairly low humidity. While the wind will be lower tomorrow, the humidity will be even lower, so Red Flag Warnings will very likely be issued again late this afternoon for tomorrow.
- Highs only in the upper 40's tomorrow and Thursday for Long Island with cold nights tonight and tomorrow night with more wind tonight.
- For the end of the week, we have the weaker system sliding south of the northeast on Thursday and then the big ocean storm retrograding westward closer to the New England coast, so it could bring some light to moderate rain for at least northeastern New England with a chance for freezing rain at least in the mountains (see last image) . It will also bring some wind and coastal flooding with the onshore flow. More details as it gets closer.
- 1st image: My Long Island forecast
- 2nd image: NHC map
- 3rd and 4th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles for the next 12 days
- 5th image: Long Island temps for the next 2 weeks
- 6th image: Map from the Euro for the period from 1 PM to 7 PM on Friday
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