***3:22 AM update with Euro ensembles much more focused now on an earlier (Thursday into early Friday morning) landfall in the Florida Panhandle; GFS continues to be a very strong outlier.***

- Welcome fall at 8:43 AM EDT!

- While there is still uncertainty since the storm hasn't formed yet, the models/ensembles are focusing in on an earlier landfall somewhere in the Panhandle area on Thursday or early Friday. The GFS at 949 mb is MUCH stronger than then Euro and Canadian, which are 989 and 991 mb, respectively. The GFS ensembles are also stronger and farther east than the Euro ensembles.

- The maps below are from the Euro ensembles, GFS ensembles, NHC, Euro, and GFS.