POSTS | MyPersonalWeatherman

***Model ensembles have re-ramped up for the potential early/mid September Hurricane!***

Aug 29, 20241 min read

Model ensembles have re-ramped up for the potential early/mid September Hurricane!

- After the heat index temperatures that reached over 100 degrees on Long Island, much cooler today and tomorrow! - The cold front comes...

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Here's the full 15-day map from the new GFS ensembles showing the 2 potential hurricanes (low chance for each). Nothing is imminent though. Full update by 4:45 AM!

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20240 min read

Here's the full 15-day map from the new GFS ensembles showing the 2 potential hurricanes (low chance for each). Nothing is imminent though. Full update by 4:45 AM!

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New map with the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still at 20%, and the new GFS ensembles have a few more starting to show development again (and the ones that do are very strong), like the Euro...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 28, 20241 min read

New map with the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still at 20%, and the new GFS ensembles have a few more starting to show development again (and the ones that do are very strong), like the Euro...

... ensembles. Also, the National Hurricane Center may highlight the 2nd system in their 2 AM update.

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Here are the new Euro ensembles showing the low to moderate chance for 2 hurricanes in the next couple of weeks. It's that first one that would be a concern if it can form as it would then have a...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 28, 20241 min read

Here are the new Euro ensembles showing the low to moderate chance for 2 hurricanes in the next couple of weeks. It's that first one that would be a concern if it can form as it would then have a...

... chance to become a major hurricane, and you can see some more ensemble members now bring it into the Gulf. Nothing is imminent, so...

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Here are the new 06Z Euro ensembles, which end at 2 AM next Tuesday. You can see the 2 areas with a slight chance of tropical development, and the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center may highlight...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 28, 20241 min read

Here are the new 06Z Euro ensembles, which end at 2 AM next Tuesday. You can see the 2 areas with a slight chance of tropical development, and the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center may highlight...

... the 2nd area later today or tomorrow in their 7-day map. Keep in mind that there are 50 Euro ensemble members, so this is a fairly...

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***Update on the hot day with a quick cooldown, thunderstorms and 2 weekend cold fronts, amazing weather next week, and the tropics with nothing imminent as we approach peak season!***

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 28, 20241 min read

Update on the hot day with a quick cooldown, thunderstorms and 2 weekend cold fronts, amazing weather next week, and the tropics with nothing imminent as we approach peak season!

- You know about the hot weather today for southern areas of the northeast (see 2nd image for heat index temps), and the scattered...

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New map from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center and sticking at 20% for now:

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 27, 20240 min read

New map from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center and sticking at 20% for now:

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Good news in that there's no denying that the models and ensembles today have taken a step back regarding the potential for a hurricane to form next week.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 27, 20240 min read

Good news in that there's no denying that the models and ensembles today have taken a step back regarding the potential for a hurricane to form next week.

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Unsurprisingly, the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has shifted the severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow into tomorrow night fairly significantly farther south.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 27, 20240 min read

Unsurprisingly, the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has shifted the severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow into tomorrow night fairly significantly farther south.

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My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 27, 20241 min read

Here are the brand-new GFS ensembles for 2 AM on Saturday, September 7th. Keep in mind though that there are 30 ensemble members plus the control run, so many of them aren't showing...

... a hurricane, although many of the ones shown here are really strong! Lots of time to watch how this all evolves! This is all part of...

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New map and still at 20%. My maps are much more interesting, LOL.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 27, 20240 min read

New map and still at 20%. My maps are much more interesting, LOL.

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***Update on the potential hurricane, Heat Advisory, thunderstorms, cooler weather, and then the Labor Day weekend cold front and uncertainty followed by beautiful and cooler weather next week!***

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 27, 20242 min read

Update on the potential hurricane, Heat Advisory, thunderstorms, cooler weather, and then the Labor Day weekend cold front and uncertainty followed by beautiful and cooler weather next week!

- One day of very hot weather tomorrow with heat index temperatures up to 100 degrees for NYC and northwestern Long Island. A Heat...

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There it is!!! I knew the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center would start covering it soon. They couldn't ignore it any longer.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20240 min read

There it is!!! I knew the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center would start covering it soon. They couldn't ignore it any longer.

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Radar at 5:05 PM as the storms continue to sink slowly SSE:

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20240 min read

Radar at 5:05 PM as the storms continue to sink slowly SSE:

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Here we go! As I have been posting about. Here are the new Euro ensembles for the next 15 days showing a potentially strong Hurricane Francine! Long way out. And there will be another behind it!

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20240 min read

Here we go! As I have been posting about. Here are the new Euro ensembles for the next 15 days showing a potentially strong Hurricane Francine! Long way out. And there will be another behind it!

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My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20240 min read

Severe Thunderstorm Watch!

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New GFS ensembles really ramping up the hurricane threat for next week into next weekend (Sept 7th/8th) with the potential for it to become a major hurricane.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20240 min read

New GFS ensembles really ramping up the hurricane threat for next week into next weekend (Sept 7th/8th) with the potential for it to become a major hurricane.

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Interesting potential partial reason from Eric Webb (@webberweather) for the less than expected hurricane activity so far this summer as in a warming climate, the upper troposphere warms faster...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20241 min read

Interesting potential partial reason from Eric Webb (@webberweather) for the less than expected hurricane activity so far this summer as in a warming climate, the upper troposphere warms faster...

... than the lower troposphere. This then increases atmospheric stability and decreases thunderstorm frequency. I would also add that the...

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***Update on thunderstorms (today, Wed, Sat), hot and then cooler weather, Labor Day weekend, beautiful weather next week, and the slowly increasing hurricane (Francine) threat!***

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 26, 20241 min read

Update on thunderstorms (today, Wed, Sat), hot and then cooler weather, Labor Day weekend, beautiful weather next week, and the slowly increasing hurricane (Francine) threat!

- There's the strong to locally severe thunderstorm threat for this afternoon into early evening, mainly for southeastern New England and...

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Here are some maps showing the cold front Saturday late afternoon/evening:

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 25, 20240 min read

Here are some maps showing the cold front Saturday late afternoon/evening:

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***Model ensembles have re-ramped up for the potential early/mid September Hurricane!***

Here's the full 15-day map from the new GFS ensembles showing the 2 potential hurricanes (low chance for each). Nothing is imminent though. Full update by 4:45 AM!

New map with the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still at 20%, and the new GFS ensembles have a few more starting to show development again (and the ones that do are very strong), like the Euro...

Here are the new Euro ensembles showing the low to moderate chance for 2 hurricanes in the next couple of weeks. It's that first one that would be a concern if it can form as it would then have a...

Here are the new 06Z Euro ensembles, which end at 2 AM next Tuesday. You can see the 2 areas with a slight chance of tropical development, and the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center may highlight...

***Update on the hot day with a quick cooldown, thunderstorms and 2 weekend cold fronts, amazing weather next week, and the tropics with nothing imminent as we approach peak season!***

New map from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center and sticking at 20% for now:

Good news in that there's no denying that the models and ensembles today have taken a step back regarding the potential for a hurricane to form next week.

Unsurprisingly, the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has shifted the severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow into tomorrow night fairly significantly farther south.

Here are the brand-new GFS ensembles for 2 AM on Saturday, September 7th. Keep in mind though that there are 30 ensemble members plus the control run, so many of them aren't showing...

New map and still at 20%. My maps are much more interesting, LOL.

***Update on the potential hurricane, Heat Advisory, thunderstorms, cooler weather, and then the Labor Day weekend cold front and uncertainty followed by beautiful and cooler weather next week!***

There it is!!! I knew the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center would start covering it soon. They couldn't ignore it any longer.

Radar at 5:05 PM as the storms continue to sink slowly SSE:

Here we go! As I have been posting about. Here are the new Euro ensembles for the next 15 days showing a potentially strong Hurricane Francine! Long way out. And there will be another behind it!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch!

New GFS ensembles really ramping up the hurricane threat for next week into next weekend (Sept 7th/8th) with the potential for it to become a major hurricane.

Interesting potential partial reason from Eric Webb (@webberweather) for the less than expected hurricane activity so far this summer as in a warming climate, the upper troposphere warms faster...

***Update on thunderstorms (today, Wed, Sat), hot and then cooler weather, Labor Day weekend, beautiful weather next week, and the slowly increasing hurricane (Francine) threat!***

Here are some maps showing the cold front Saturday late afternoon/evening:

Model ensembles have re-ramped up for the potential early/mid September Hurricane!

Update on the hot day with a quick cooldown, thunderstorms and 2 weekend cold fronts, amazing weather next week, and the tropics with nothing imminent as we approach peak season!

Update on the potential hurricane, Heat Advisory, thunderstorms, cooler weather, and then the Labor Day weekend cold front and uncertainty followed by beautiful and cooler weather next week!

Update on thunderstorms (today, Wed, Sat), hot and then cooler weather, Labor Day weekend, beautiful weather next week, and the slowly increasing hurricane (Francine) threat!