POSTS | MyPersonalWeatherman

***Here's the 10-day Model Blend rainfall map with crazy amounts along the Gulf coast and a map showing potential Gulf coast flooding in days 8 to 14, as well as maps showing the potential for a...

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 3, 20241 min read

***Here's the 10-day Model Blend rainfall map with crazy amounts along the Gulf coast and a map showing potential Gulf coast flooding in days 8 to 14, as well as maps showing the potential for a...

... tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf later next week***

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New Euro ensembles and still watching the Gulf for a low chance of a hurricane later next week:

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 3, 20240 min read

New Euro ensembles and still watching the Gulf for a low chance of a hurricane later next week:

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New map with both orange areas now downgraded to yellow. It's nice to have this extended break, but there's still plenty of hurricane season left.

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 3, 20240 min read

New map with both orange areas now downgraded to yellow. It's nice to have this extended break, but there's still plenty of hurricane season left.

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New map with still no imminent tropical development:

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 3, 20240 min read

New map with still no imminent tropical development:

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***Beautiful weather in the northeast the next few days and also for early to mid next week, but not a great weekend. Still nothing imminent in the tropics, but watching the Gulf next week.***

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 3, 20241 min read

Beautiful weather in the northeast the next few days and also for early to mid next week, but not a great weekend. Still nothing imminent in the tropics, but watching the Gulf next week.

- An amazing day ahead for Long Island with blue skies and very low humidity, possibly below 30% this afternoon for some areas....

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Here are the new Euro ensembles, and there is still a chance for the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea to eventually become a hurricane in the Gulf:

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 2, 20240 min read

Here are the new Euro ensembles, and there is still a chance for the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea to eventually become a hurricane in the Gulf:

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***Happy Labor Day! Some amazing weather with cool nights ahead before the rain/wind storm and then more great weather! Tropics generally quiet for peak season, but still watching.***

My Personal Weatherman™

Sep 2, 20241 min read

Happy Labor Day! Some amazing weather with cool nights ahead before the rain/wind storm and then more great weather! Tropics generally quiet for peak season, but still watching.

- On this Labor Day, we should appreciate how far we have come in terms of improved work conditions. I hope you all can get to relax and...

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My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 31, 20241 min read

A brief note on the tropics:

Tropical development for the main system of concern is not imminent as some obstacles remain. The tropical wave is elongated and will...

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Here are the new Euro ensembles for the next 15 days and the new NHC map with them back up to 50% for the main system of concern:

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 31, 20240 min read

Here are the new Euro ensembles for the next 15 days and the new NHC map with them back up to 50% for the main system of concern:

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This is so not what you want to see with the end of the Euro run showing an intensifying hurricane heading northward in the Gulf. Still a long way to go and a lot of uncertainty, but when I say...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 30, 20241 min read

This is so not what you want to see with the end of the Euro run showing an intensifying hurricane heading northward in the Gulf. Still a long way to go and a lot of uncertainty, but when I say...

... high-end potential, I don't mean just a Cat 3.

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Here are the new 06Z Euro ensembles. They only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 AM next Thursday, September 5th. You can see that the intensity varies greatly, but most are generally heading...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 30, 20241 min read

Here are the new 06Z Euro ensembles. They only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 AM next Thursday, September 5th. You can see that the intensity varies greatly, but most are generally heading...

... towards the central Caribbean and possibly towards Jamaica.

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There's good convection, but it's very elongated and will take a while for it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone. I'm starting to lean more towards it eventually becoming a major hurricane in...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 30, 20241 min read

There's good convection, but it's very elongated and will take a while for it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone. I'm starting to lean more towards it eventually becoming a major hurricane in...

... the Gulf, but stay tuned! See previous post for the full update with the ensembles maps!

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***Still watching for the chance for a hurricane to form with high-end potential as there are some scary ensemble members!***

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 30, 20241 min read

Still watching for the chance for a hurricane to form with high-end potential as there are some scary ensemble members!

- First, for Long Island weather, the forecast is below and always available on my website. We have some showers this morning and then...

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My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 30, 20241 min read

Here are the brand-new 18Z Euro ensembles, which only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 PM next Wednesday, and it's not what you want to see as the chances continue to increase for potential...

... Hurricane Francine to form. Full update by 4:45 AM with the Euro ensembles map extended out to 15 days!

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Now up to 50% and there is the trailing system that you shouldn't be surprised about as I have been posting the ensembles with the odds favoring an early turn north.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20240 min read

Now up to 50% and there is the trailing system that you shouldn't be surprised about as I have been posting the ensembles with the odds favoring an early turn north.

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New Euro ensembles are concerning as there are many really strong ones in there! Here's the map for the next 15 days and then the maps showing the storm locations at 7 days, 10 days, and 12 days...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20241 min read

New Euro ensembles are concerning as there are many really strong ones in there! Here's the map for the next 15 days and then the maps showing the storm locations at 7 days, 10 days, and 12 days...

... from today. More updates to come. NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still at a 40% chance of tropical development within the next 7...

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My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20241 min read

Brand-new 06Z Euro ensembles, which only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 AM next Wednesday. You can see the southern track with the potential storm entering the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Stronger ones are farther north with the weaker ones farther south, and not all of the ensemble members develop it. You can also see the...

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Check out these refreshing temperatures when you walk out your door the morning after Labor Day:

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20240 min read

Check out these refreshing temperatures when you walk out your door the morning after Labor Day:

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Big jump from 20% to 40% from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center, and if you saw my posts last night and this morning, you shouldn't be surprised.

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20240 min read

Big jump from 20% to 40% from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center, and if you saw my posts last night and this morning, you shouldn't be surprised.

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You must see my previous post for the full context as the ensembles have re-ramped up the hurricane potential. This video is from the new GFS run from Sept 4th to Sept 11th, and is showing just one...

My Personal Weatherman™

Aug 29, 20241 min read

You must see my previous post for the full context as the ensembles have re-ramped up the hurricane potential. This video is from the new GFS run from Sept 4th to Sept 11th, and is showing just one...

... possible scenario, so don't pay TOO much attention to the exact track yet, but definitely stay tuned.

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***Here's the 10-day Model Blend rainfall map with crazy amounts along the Gulf coast and a map showing potential Gulf coast flooding in days 8 to 14, as well as maps showing the potential for a...

New Euro ensembles and still watching the Gulf for a low chance of a hurricane later next week:

New map with both orange areas now downgraded to yellow. It's nice to have this extended break, but there's still plenty of hurricane season left.

New map with still no imminent tropical development:

***Beautiful weather in the northeast the next few days and also for early to mid next week, but not a great weekend. Still nothing imminent in the tropics, but watching the Gulf next week.***

Here are the new Euro ensembles, and there is still a chance for the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea to eventually become a hurricane in the Gulf:

***Happy Labor Day! Some amazing weather with cool nights ahead before the rain/wind storm and then more great weather! Tropics generally quiet for peak season, but still watching.***

A brief note on the tropics:

Here are the new Euro ensembles for the next 15 days and the new NHC map with them back up to 50% for the main system of concern:

This is so not what you want to see with the end of the Euro run showing an intensifying hurricane heading northward in the Gulf. Still a long way to go and a lot of uncertainty, but when I say...

Here are the new 06Z Euro ensembles. They only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 AM next Thursday, September 5th. You can see that the intensity varies greatly, but most are generally heading...

There's good convection, but it's very elongated and will take a while for it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone. I'm starting to lean more towards it eventually becoming a major hurricane in...

***Still watching for the chance for a hurricane to form with high-end potential as there are some scary ensemble members!***

Here are the brand-new 18Z Euro ensembles, which only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 PM next Wednesday, and it's not what you want to see as the chances continue to increase for potential...

Now up to 50% and there is the trailing system that you shouldn't be surprised about as I have been posting the ensembles with the odds favoring an early turn north.

New Euro ensembles are concerning as there are many really strong ones in there! Here's the map for the next 15 days and then the maps showing the storm locations at 7 days, 10 days, and 12 days...

Brand-new 06Z Euro ensembles, which only go out 6 days, so this map ends at 2 AM next Wednesday. You can see the southern track with the potential storm entering the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Check out these refreshing temperatures when you walk out your door the morning after Labor Day:

Big jump from 20% to 40% from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center, and if you saw my posts last night and this morning, you shouldn't be surprised.

You must see my previous post for the full context as the ensembles have re-ramped up the hurricane potential. This video is from the new GFS run from Sept 4th to Sept 11th, and is showing just one...

Beautiful weather in the northeast the next few days and also for early to mid next week, but not a great weekend. Still nothing imminent in the tropics, but watching the Gulf next week.

Happy Labor Day! Some amazing weather with cool nights ahead before the rain/wind storm and then more great weather! Tropics generally quiet for peak season, but still watching.

Still watching for the chance for a hurricane to form with high-end potential as there are some scary ensemble members!